There is overwhelming consensus amongst the environmentally conscious and green supporters that a High Speed Rail Link would be good for the environment. Indeed this common perception is supported by various studies that clearly show that HSR is by far the most energy efficient mode of transport, being over eight times more energy efficient than that of plane travel and almost six times that of a private car. (see table) 
How feasible is it?
Notwithstanding these facts however, the question still remains: Is this common belief in the desirability of a HSR link along the east coast something green minded Australians should support and promote, or would we in fact get greater and more far-reaching environmental benefits by spending our money elsewhere?
Transport economics boils down to two main elements: Time and cost. How long will the journey be, and what will it cost? The relationship is not exactly linear, for example there are upper and lower thresholds in both time and cost that will change the feasibility. And there are a range of subsidiary considerations, such as convenience, reliability and comfort that will effect different customers in different ways at different times. Never-the-less, when considering an alternate mode of transport such as High Speed Rail, experience shows that the journey time and the cost need to be comparable with discounted air travel.
The easiest part of this equation to solve is the time factor. Currently average travel speeds on HSR routes around the world are getting over the 250km/h range, with some in China exceeding 330km/h as an average speed. Assuming at best, that Australian High Speed Rail is at least 10 to 12 years away, it would seem reasonable that we could plan for and expect an average speed of 300km/h.
Given a route length of approximately 850km and with three intermediate stops say - Melbourne Airport, Canberra and Sydney Airport - the fastest practical time would be between 3hr15mins and 3hr35mins. This would allow for 10 minute stops at each station plus acceleration and deceleration times in and out of stations. One commentator has calculated that the addition of say four additional regional stops such as say Seymour, Albury, Wagga Wagga and Wollongong would add just over half an hour to the journey but widen the appeal and help secure political support from regional voters.
When compared to air travel between Sydney and Melbourne which takes on average about 2 hours and 30 minutes to 3 hours for a direct flight with none of the options of intermediate stops that HSR could offer, I think most would agree that HSR is extremely time competitive and in many ways more convenient since it would be CBD to CBD, and enable more freedom to move around, work and relax during the journey. Indeed it would be more than competitive on the Sydney to Canberra route and almost all cities in between.
What will it cost?
The remaining hurdle is the cost. A review of various papers puts the capital cost as low as $50 billion to as high as $100 billion. Clearly this wide disparity has to be narrowed, but owing the sheer size of the project and the time horizons that would be required (10 plus years) and the propensity for these projects to blow out in cost, the higher estimate may turn out to be way under the mark.
Regardless of what the cost turns out to be, we can only really judge it's affordability by setting this against the savings and potential growth factors the project would bring. This is where it gets tricky, as proponents of the system bring to bear a wide range of social and environmental benefits that are no doubt valid, but are very difficult to quantify. The other factor that must be considered is the comparative benefits that might be achieved with spending the same or maybe even less on other projects.
So while we may argue that an East Coast HSR, would save building a second Sydney airport (a saving of say $15-20 billion) along with many other benefits of developing regional cities and so on, how would this compare with spending say paying $15 billion extra on the Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane suburban rail networks, and perhaps just doing a HSR to Canberra and Newcastle? There is a good argument to say that these measures might have a greater environmental and social impact than a big-headline, "sexy", mega project like HSR. On the other hand it could be argued that the embarkation on a big project such as this will have a flow on effect and indeed train our thoughts and give the individual city projects a higher chance of success.
What ever the outcome of the East Coast HSR, it is clear that the age of the train is returning and Australians are starting to realise that public transport is regaining it's status after so long being a poor relation to the car.
A great resource for additional information on High Speed Rail in Australia is the CRC for Rail Innovation website.
Written by Gavan Farley
Image Credit: Jimmy Yao via Flickr Creative Commons
Image Remixed: Suze Chalmers
